Competitive scope through last play below 97.5% WP at start/end; earlier plays included; 206 WP values available
GAME/EXPLAINEDWeek 5
Game story
Baltimore Ravens won 30–23
Baltimore’s biggest edge was a 54.3% success rate to Atlanta’s 40.6%, along with better field position, red-zone scoring (4.29 vs. 3.2 points per trip inside the 40) and fewer penalty yards. Atlanta offset that with slightly better yards per play and a defensive touchdown, but the even turnover count and Baltimore’s broader efficiency advantage explain the result.
A full bar marks a large historical gap for that factor and view. Live bars use completed games as a reference, so their scale is provisional. Tied, unresolved, and low-sample comparisons have no bar.
Plays
About WP and EPA
WP is win probability; pp means percentage points. EPA estimates points added by a play and may become available after the next play.
Most impactful
01
ATLQ4 · 0:27 · 1st and 10 from the ATL 41Score BAL 23 · ATL 23
Fumble Recovery (Own)
(Shotgun) M. Penix sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards (T. Robinson). FUMBLES (T. Robinson) [T. Robinson], recovered by ATL-R. Neuzil at ATL 31. ATL-M. Penix was injured during the play.
Play EPAATL −0.90 points
Win probability changeBAL +19.6 pp35.2% → 54.8%
02
BALQ1 · 8:03 · 2nd and 19 from the BAL 25Score BAL 3 · ATL 0
Fumble Return Touchdown
(Shotgun) T. Huntley pass short middle to M. Andrews to BLT 34 for 9 yards (D. Deablo, S. Brown). FUMBLES (S. Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-J. Bates at BLT 36. J. Bates for 36 yards, Touchdown. N. Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L. McCullough, Holder-J. Bailey.
Defensive pointsATL +7
Play EPABAL −7.05 points
Win probability changeATL +14.2 pp53.6% → 67.8%
03
ATLQ4 · 0:19 · 2nd and 20 from the ATL 31Score BAL 23 · ATL 23
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) T. Tagovailoa pass short left to Bi.Robinson ran ob at ATL 45 for 14 yards (R. Smith).
Play EPAATL +0.10 points
Win probability changeATL +14.1 pp45.2% → 59.3%
04
ATLQ5 · 2:11 · 1st and 10 from the ATL 48Score BAL 30 · ATL 23
Pass Interception Return
(Shotgun) T. Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for D. London intercepted by K. Hamilton at BLT 40. K. Hamilton to BLT 42 for 2 yards (D. London).
Play EPAUnavailable
Win probability changeBAL +13.1 pp86.9% → 100.0%
05
ATLQ4 · 0:34 · 1st and 10 from the ATL 23Score BAL 23 · ATL 23
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) M. Penix pass deep right to J. Dotson to ATL 41 for 18 yards (N. Wiggins).
Play EPAATL +0.54 points
Win probability changeATL +12.6 pp55.7% → 68.3%
All plays 205
ATLQ1 · 15:00 · from the ATL 35Score BAL 0 · ATL 0
Kickoff
J. Bailey kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BLT 35.
Play EPAATL −0.50 points
Win probability changeBAL +3.0 pp
BALQ1 · 15:00 · 1st and 10 from the BAL 35Score BAL 0 · ATL 0
Rush
Z. Flowers right end to BLT 48 for 13 yards (X. Watts).
Play EPABAL +1.05 points
Win probability changeBAL +1.8 pp
BALQ1 · 14:23 · 1st and 10 from the BAL 48Score BAL 0 · ATL 0
Rush
(Shotgun) D. Henry right guard to ATL 45 for 7 yards (C. Henderson).
Play EPABAL +0.36 points
Win probability changeBAL +1.4 pp
BALQ1 · 13:48 · 2nd and 3 from the ATL 45Score BAL 0 · ATL 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) T. Huntley pass incomplete short right to J. Hill.
Play EPABAL −0.82 points
Win probability changeATL +1.5 pp
BALQ1 · 13:44 · 3rd and 3 from the ATL 45Score BAL 0 · ATL 0
Rush
(Shotgun) J. Hill left tackle to ATL 24 for 21 yards (M. Hughes).
Play EPABAL +2.52 points
Win probability changeBAL +5.2 pp
BALQ1 · 13:02 · 1st and 10 from the ATL 24Score BAL 0 · ATL 0
Rush
D. Henry left tackle to ATL 19 for 5 yards (K. Daniels).
Play EPABAL −0.04 points
Win probability changeBAL +0.8 pp
BALQ1 · 12:23 · 2nd and 5 from the ATL 19Score BAL 0 · ATL 0
Pass Reception
T. Huntley pass short right to Z. Flowers to ATL 8 for 11 yards (X. Watts).
Play EPABAL +0.92 points
Win probability changeBAL +1.3 pp
BALQ1 · 11:39 · 1st and 8 from the ATL 8Score BAL 0 · ATL 0
Rush
D. Henry left end to ATL 1 for 7 yards (M. Hughes).
Play EPABAL +0.72 points
Win probability changeBAL +2.5 pp
BALQ1 · 10:57 · 2nd and 1 from the ATL 1Score BAL 0 · ATL 0
Rush
(Shotgun) C. Vinson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to D. Henry. D. Henry up the middle to ATL 3 for -2 yards (G. Dexter, L. London). Penalty on BLT, Illegal Formation, declined.
PenaltyIllegal Formation on BAL — declined
Play EPABAL −1.46 points
Win probability changeATL +2.9 pp
BALQ1 · 10:36 · 3rd and 3 from the ATL 3Score BAL 0 · ATL 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) T. Huntley pass incomplete short right to M. Andrews.
Play EPABAL −1.81 points
Win probability changeATL +5.8 pp
BALQ1 · 10:27 · 4th and 3 from the ATL 3Score BAL 0 · ATL 0
Field Goal Good
T. Loop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N. Moore, Holder-R. Eckley.
Points scoredBAL +3
Play EPABAL +0.05 points
Win probability changeBAL +0.9 pp
BALQ1 · 10:27 · from the BAL 35Score BAL 3 · ATL 0
Official Timeout
Official Timeout at 10:27.
Play EPAUnavailable
Win probability changeNo measured change
BALQ1 · 10:27 · from the BAL 35Score BAL 3 · ATL 0
Kickoff
T. Loop kicks 58 yards from BLT 35 to ATL 7. O. Zaccheaus to ATL 32 for 25 yards (M. Starks; E. Burke). Penalty on ATL-J. Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 27.
PenaltyOffensive Holding on ATL — 10-yard penalty
Play EPABAL +0.57 points
Win probability changeBAL +0.6 pp
ATLQ1 · 10:21 · 1st and 10 from the ATL 17Score BAL 3 · ATL 0
Pass Incompletion
M. Penix pass incomplete deep middle to D. London.
Play EPAATL −0.65 points
Win probability changeBAL +2.1 pp
ATLQ1 · 10:15 · 2nd and 10 from the ATL 17Score BAL 3 · ATL 0
Rush
(Shotgun) Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 21 for 4 yards (T. Robinson; R. Smith).
Play EPAATL −0.49 points
Win probability changeATL +0.3 pp
ATLQ1 · 9:46 · 3rd and 6 from the ATL 21Score BAL 3 · ATL 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) M. Penix pass incomplete short right to Bi.Robinson (T. Robinson).
Play EPAATL −1.56 points
Win probability changeBAL +2.8 pp
ATLQ1 · 9:41 · 4th and 6 from the ATL 21Score BAL 3 · ATL 0
Punt
J. Bailey punts 56 yards to BLT 23, Center-L. McCullough, fair catch by L. Wester.
Play EPAATL +0.82 points
Win probability changeATL +2.0 pp
BALQ1 · 9:33 · 1st and 10 from the BAL 24Score BAL 3 · ATL 0
Official Timeout
Official Timeout at 09:33.
Play EPAUnavailable
Win probability changeBAL +0.2 pp
BALQ1 · 9:33 · 1st and 10 from the BAL 23Score BAL 3 · ATL 0
Rush
C. Vinson reported in as eligible. D. Henry right tackle to BLT 34 for 11 yards (X. Watts; C. Thomas).
Play EPABAL +0.81 points
Win probability changeBAL +1.2 pp
BALQ1 · 8:59 · 1st and 10 from the BAL 34Score BAL 3 · ATL 0
Sack
(Shotgun) T. Huntley sacked at BLT 25 for -9 yards (J. Ivey).