Competitive scope through last play below 97.5% WP at start/end; earlier plays included; 182 WP values available
GAME/EXPLAINEDWeek 5
Game story
Green Bay Packers won 31–7
Green Bay won the turnover battle 5–0 and was far more efficient, with advantages in adjusted yards per play (7.54–3.62), explosive-play rate (14.0%–7.4%), and points per trip inside the 40 (4.43–1.17). Chicago’s slight edge in penalty yards was negligible by comparison.
A full bar marks a large historical gap for that factor and view. Live bars use completed games as a reference, so their scale is provisional. Tied, unresolved, and low-sample comparisons have no bar.
Plays
About WP and EPA
WP is win probability; pp means percentage points. EPA estimates points added by a play and may become available after the next play.
Most impactful
01
GBQ3 · 13:10 · 3rd and 22 from the GB 47Score CHI 7 · GB 14
Passing Touchdown
(Shotgun) J. Love pass deep middle to C. Watson for 53 yards, Touchdown. T. Smack extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-M. Orzech, Holder-D. Whelan.
Points scoredGB +6
Play EPAGB +5.90 points
Win probability changeGB +17.9 pp68.0% → 85.9%
02
CHIQ2 · 1:53 · 4th and 1 from the GB 1Score CHI 0 · GB 14
Rushing Touchdown
(Shotgun) D. Swift left tackle for 1 yard, Touchdown. C. Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S. Daly, Holder-T. Taylor.
Points scoredCHI +7
Play EPACHI +2.55 points
Win probability changeCHI +11.2 pp20.7% → 31.8%
03
GBQ1 · 5:51 · 1st and 10 from the CHI 42Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Passing Touchdown
J. Love pass deep left to C. Watson for 42 yards, Touchdown. T. Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M. Orzech, Holder-D. Whelan.
Points scoredGB +7
Play EPAGB +3.57 points
Win probability changeGB +10.6 pp49.8% → 60.5%
04
CHIQ2 · 2:00 · 3rd and 1 from the GB 1Score CHI 0 · GB 14
Pass Incompletion
T. Bagent pass incomplete short middle to R. Odunze (K. Nixon).
Play EPACHI −1.23 points
Win probability changeGB +7.0 pp
05
CHIQ1 · 5:39 · 2nd and 10 from the CHI 26Score CHI 0 · GB 7
Pass Interception Return
(Shotgun) T. Bagent pass deep right intended for L. Burden intercepted by X. McKinney (J. Bullard) at CHI 45. X. McKinney to CHI 45 for no gain (L. Burden).
Play EPACHI −3.60 points
Win probability changeGB +5.8 pp
All plays 181
GBQ1 · 15:00 · from the GB 35Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Kickoff
T. Smack kicks 59 yards from GB 35 to CHI 6. Z. Thomas to CHI 29 for 23 yards (K. Hadden; E. Williams).
Play EPAGB −0.31 points
Win probability changeCHI +2.3 pp
CHIQ1 · 14:55 · 1st and 10 from the CHI 29Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Rush
L. Burden left end pushed out of bounds at CHI 30 for 1 yard (E. Williams).
Play EPACHI −0.55 points
Win probability changeGB +1.6 pp
CHIQ1 · 14:35 · 2nd and 9 from the CHI 30Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) T. Bagent pass short left to D. Swift pushed out of bounds at CHI 43 for 13 yards (Z. Franklin).
Play EPACHI +1.49 points
Win probability changeCHI +3.3 pp
CHIQ1 · 14:06 · 1st and 10 from the CHI 43Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Rush
D. Swift left end to CHI 44 for 1 yard (K. Nixon).
Play EPACHI −0.45 points
Win probability changeGB +1.6 pp
CHIQ1 · 13:28 · 2nd and 9 from the CHI 44Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Sack
(Shotgun) T. Bagent sacked at CHI 33 for -11 yards (D. Wyatt).
Play EPACHI −1.81 points
Win probability changeGB +4.1 pp
CHIQ1 · 12:45 · 3rd and 20 from the CHI 33Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) T. Bagent pass short right to D. Swift to CHI 38 for 5 yards (Z. Franklin).
Play EPACHI −1.03 points
Win probability changeGB +0.2 pp
CHIQ1 · 12:13 · 4th and 15 from the CHI 38Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Punt
T. Taylor punts 53 yards to GB 9, Center-S. Daly, out of bounds.
Play EPACHI +0.99 points
Win probability changeCHI +1.9 pp
GBQ1 · 12:04 · 1st and 10 from the GB 9Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Pass Reception
J. Love pass short right to T. Kraft to GB 22 for 13 yards (D. Thieneman) [M. Sweat].
Play EPAGB +0.71 points
Win probability changeGB +1.6 pp
GBQ1 · 11:25 · 1st and 10 from the GB 22Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Rush
(Shotgun) M. Lloyd right tackle to GB 23 for 1 yard (D. Odeyingbo; D. Bush).
Play EPAGB −0.49 points
Win probability changeCHI +1.6 pp
GBQ1 · 10:43 · 2nd and 9 from the GB 23Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Rush
(Shotgun) J. Love scrambles right tackle to GB 29 for 6 yards (G. Jarrett).
Play EPAGB +0.31 points
Win probability changeGB +1.2 pp
GBQ1 · 9:58 · 3rd and 3 from the GB 29Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) J. Love pass short middle to M. Golden to GB 32 for 3 yards (C. Lewis).
Play EPAGB +1.11 points
Win probability changeGB +1.8 pp
GBQ1 · 9:16 · 1st and 10 from the GB 32Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Rush
M. Lloyd left tackle to GB 37 for 5 yards (T. Edwards).
Play EPAGB −0.02 points
Win probability changeGB +<0.1 pp
GBQ1 · 8:38 · 2nd and 5 from the GB 37Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Rush
(Shotgun) M. Lloyd left tackle to GB 47 for 10 yards (T. Stevenson).
Play EPAGB +0.95 points
Win probability changeGB +2.1 pp
GBQ1 · 7:58 · 1st and 10 from the GB 47Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Pass Reception
J. Love pass short right to C. Watson to CHI 48 for 5 yards (D. Jackson).
Play EPAGB −0.08 points
Win probability changeGB +0.1 pp
GBQ1 · 7:10 · 2nd and 5 from the CHI 48Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) J. Love pass short right to P. Strong to CHI 44 for 4 yards (C. Lewis). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Play EPAGB +0.16 points
Win probability changeGB +1.4 pp
GBQ1 · 6:37 · 3rd and 1 from the CHI 44Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Rush
Direct snap to T. Kraft. T. Kraft up the middle to CHI 42 for 2 yards (J. Lynch; K. Street).
Play EPAGB +0.49 points
Win probability changeGB +0.4 pp
GBQ1 · 5:51 · 1st and 10 from the CHI 42Score CHI 0 · GB 0
Passing Touchdown
J. Love pass deep left to C. Watson for 42 yards, Touchdown. T. Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M. Orzech, Holder-D. Whelan.
Points scoredGB +7
Play EPAGB +3.57 points
Win probability changeGB +10.6 pp49.8% → 60.5%
GBQ1 · 5:51 · from the CHI 15Score CHI 0 · GB 7
Official Timeout
Official Timeout at 05:51.
Play EPAUnavailable
Win probability changeGB +0.2 pp
GBQ1 · 5:51 · from the GB 35Score CHI 0 · GB 7
Kickoff
T. Smack kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to CHI 0. Z. Thomas pushed out of bounds at CHI 26 for 26 yards (K. Hadden).
Play EPAGB −0.03 points
Win probability changeCHI +0.6 pp
CHIQ1 · 5:45 · 1st and 10 from the CHI 26Score CHI 0 · GB 7
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) T. Bagent pass incomplete short left to C. Kmet.