Competitive scope through last play below 97.5% WP at start/end; earlier plays included; 198 WP values available
GAME/EXPLAINEDWeek 5
Game story
New York Jets won 17–12
The Jets’ stronger efficiency—43.8% success rate and 4.34 adjusted yards per play versus Cleveland’s 30.8% and 3.05—plus an 11-yard field-position edge outweighed the Browns’ advantages in red-zone scoring and penalties. Turnovers were even, and the late sequence was unusually decisive: Cleveland’s touchdown was followed by a missed extra point, a Jets recovery of a muffed punt, and New York’s go-ahead touchdown.
A full bar marks a large historical gap for that factor and view. Live bars use completed games as a reference, so their scale is provisional. Tied, unresolved, and low-sample comparisons have no bar.
Plays
About WP and EPA
WP is win probability; pp means percentage points. EPA estimates points added by a play and may become available after the next play.
Most impactful
01
CLEQ4 · 6:15 · 3rd and 10 from the NYJ 29Score CLE 6 · NYJ 10
Passing Touchdown
(Shotgun) D. Watson pass deep left to D. Boston for 29 yards, Touchdown. A. Szmyt extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-R. Sunahara, Holder-C. Bojorquez.
Points scoredCLE +6
Play EPACLE +4.30 points
Win probability changeCLE +31.7 pp32.7% → 64.5%
02
NYJQ4 · 4:20 · 1st and 10 from the CLE 39Score CLE 12 · NYJ 10
Sack Opp Fumble Recovery
G. Smith sacked at CLV 48 for -9 yards (C. Schwesinger). FUMBLES (C. Schwesinger) [C. Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLV-A. Huntington at NYJ 48. A. Huntington to NYJ 43 for 5 yards (J. Tippmann; A. Membou).
Play EPANYJ −5.84 points
Win probability changeCLE +30.8 pp44.0% → 74.7%
03
CLEQ4 · 4:01 · 4th and 10 from the NYJ 43Score CLE 12 · NYJ 10
Fumble Recovery (Opponent)
(Punt formation) C. Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLV 42, touched at CLV 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-T. Wallace at CLV 23.
Play EPACLE −4.14 points
Win probability changeNYJ +24.9 pp37.8% → 62.7%
04
NYJQ4 · 3:01 · 3rd and 9 from the CLE 22Score CLE 12 · NYJ 10
Rushing Touchdown
(Shotgun) B. Allen left tackle for 22 yards, Touchdown. J. Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T. Hennessy, Holder-A. McNamara.
Points scoredNYJ +7
Play EPANYJ +3.87 points
Win probability changeNYJ +21.7 pp58.2% → 79.9%
05
CLEQ4 · 6:15 · from the CLE 35Score CLE 12 · NYJ 10
Kickoff
A. Szmyt kicks 56 yards from CLV 35 to NYJ 9. I. Williams to NYJ 45 for 36 yards (E. Mascarenas-Arnold).
Play EPACLE −1.26 points
Win probability changeNYJ +14.9 pp35.5% → 50.4%
All plays 197
NYJQ1 · 15:00 · from the NYJ 35Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Kickoff
J. Sanders kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to CLV 0. M. Corley to CLV 34 for 34 yards (A. Cisco; W. McDonald).
Play EPANYJ −0.56 points
Win probability changeCLE +2.9 pp
CLEQ1 · 14:54 · 1st and 10 from the CLE 34Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Rush
(Shotgun) Q. Judkins right end to CLV 30 for -4 yards (K. Enagbare).
Play EPACLE −1.14 points
Win probability changeNYJ +3.3 pp
CLEQ1 · 14:15 · 2nd and 14 from the CLE 30Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) D. Watson pass short left to Q. Judkins to CLV 32 for 2 yards (J. Brownlee).
Play EPACLE −0.58 points
Win probability changeNYJ +0.4 pp
CLEQ1 · 13:36 · 3rd and 12 from the CLE 32Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) D. Watson pass short left to R. Sanders to CLV 33 for 1 yard (D. Bailey).
Play EPACLE −1.06 points
Win probability changeNYJ +1.5 pp
CLEQ1 · 12:58 · 4th and 11 from the CLE 33Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Punt
C. Bojorquez punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-R. Sunahara, Touchback.
Play EPACLE +0.40 points
Win probability changeCLE +1.1 pp
NYJQ1 · 12:49 · 1st and 10 from the NYJ 20Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Rush
B. Allen up the middle to NYJ 33 for 13 yards (T. Campbell). Penalty on NYJ-T. Patrick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 22.
PenaltyOffensive Holding on NYJ — 10-yard penalty
Play EPANYJ −0.93 points
Win probability changeCLE +1.0 pp
NYJQ1 · 12:38 · 1st and 18 from the NYJ 12Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) G. Smith pass short right to G. Wilson to NYJ 29 for 17 yards (C. Schwesinger).
Play EPANYJ +1.95 points
Win probability changeNYJ +3.0 pp
NYJQ1 · 12:10 · 2nd and 1 from the NYJ 29Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Rush
B. Allen up the middle to NYJ 32 for 3 yards (J. Verse).
Play EPANYJ −0.10 points
Win probability changeCLE +0.5 pp
NYJQ1 · 11:28 · 1st and 10 from the NYJ 32Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) G. Smith pass deep left to G. Wilson to CLV 47 for 21 yards (D. Ward).
Play EPANYJ +1.25 points
Win probability changeNYJ +2.8 pp
NYJQ1 · 10:49 · 1st and 10 from the CLE 47Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Rush
B. Allen left tackle to CLV 42 for 5 yards (T. Campbell; A. Huntington).
Play EPANYJ −0.08 points
Win probability changeNYJ +<0.1 pp
NYJQ1 · 10:11 · 2nd and 5 from the CLE 42Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Rush
B. Allen right guard to CLV 32 for 10 yards (M. Harden; Q. Williams).
Play EPANYJ +0.95 points
Win probability changeNYJ +2.3 pp
NYJQ1 · 9:29 · 1st and 10 from the CLE 32Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Pass Incompletion
G. Smith pass incomplete short right to G. Wilson.
Play EPANYJ −0.44 points
Win probability changeCLE +2.2 pp
NYJQ1 · 9:17 · 2nd and 10 from the CLE 32Score CLE 0 · NYJ 0
Passing Touchdown
(Shotgun) G. Smith pass short right to G. Wilson for 32 yards, Touchdown. J. Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T. Hennessy, Holder-A. McNamara.
Points scoredNYJ +7
Play EPANYJ +3.36 points
Win probability changeNYJ +9.8 pp
NYJQ1 · 9:17 · from the CLE 15Score CLE 0 · NYJ 7
Official Timeout
Official Timeout at 09:17.
Play EPAUnavailable
Win probability changeNYJ +2.1 pp
NYJQ1 · 9:17 · from the NYJ 35Score CLE 0 · NYJ 7
Kickoff
J. Sanders kicks 59 yards from NYJ 35 to CLV 6. M. Corley to CLV 26 for 20 yards (T. Wallace; I. Davis).
Play EPANYJ −0.03 points
Win probability changeCLE +2.3 pp
CLEQ1 · 9:12 · 1st and 10 from the CLE 26Score CLE 0 · NYJ 7
Fumble Recovery (Own)
(Shotgun) D. Watson to CLV 20 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CLV 20. D. Watson sacked at CLV 20 for -6 yards (D. Bailey).
Play EPACLE −1.38 points
Win probability changeNYJ +3.3 pp
CLEQ1 · 8:32 · 2nd and 16 from the CLE 20Score CLE 0 · NYJ 7
Rush
(Shotgun) Q. Judkins right guard pushed out of bounds at CLV 34 for 14 yards (M. Fitzpatrick).
Play EPACLE +1.25 points
Win probability changeCLE +3.6 pp
CLEQ1 · 8:10 · 3rd and 2 from the CLE 34Score CLE 0 · NYJ 7
Rush
(Shotgun) Q. Judkins right tackle to CLV 37 for 3 yards (D. Belton; D. Davis). CLV-T. Howard was injured during the play.
Play EPACLE +0.88 points
Win probability changeCLE +0.9 pp
CLEQ1 · 7:46 · 1st and 10 from the CLE 37Score CLE 0 · NYJ 7
Official Timeout
Official Timeout at 07:46.
Play EPAUnavailable
Win probability changeNYJ +<0.1 pp
CLEQ1 · 7:39 · 1st and 10 from the CLE 37Score CLE 0 · NYJ 7
Rush
(Shotgun) R. Sanders right guard to CLV 41 for 4 yards (D. Bailey).