Competitive scope through last play below 97.5% WP at start/end; earlier plays included; 182 WP values available
GAME/EXPLAINEDWeek 1
Game story
Philadelphia Eagles won 24–22
Philadelphia’s edge in efficiency and big-play production, plus better red-zone scoring (6.0 vs. 4.4 points per trip) and field position, outweighed Washington’s higher success rate. The 43-yard touchdown pass to Dallas Goedert was an unusually decisive late play, while turnovers were even.
Final score
WSH22
PHI24
Game factors
WSH 1 · PHI 52 tied
FactorWSHPHIGap
About bar scale
A full bar marks a large historical gap for that factor and view. Live bars use completed games as a reference, so their scale is provisional. Tied, unresolved, and low-sample comparisons have no bar.
Plays
About WP and EPA
WP is win probability; pp means percentage points. EPA estimates points added by a play and may become available after the next play.
Most impactful
01
WSHQ4 · 1:01 · from the WSH 35Score WSH 22 · PHI 24
Kickoff
D. Stevens kicks onside 17 yards from WSH 35 to PHI 48. D. Smith (didn't try to advance) to PHI 48 for no gain.
Play EPAWSH +0.61 points
Win probability changePHI +35.2 pp64.7% → 99.9%
02
PHIQ4 · 6:02 · 3rd and 6 from the WSH 43Score WSH 16 · PHI 17
Passing Touchdown
(Shotgun) J. Hurts pass short middle to D. Goedert for 43 yards, Touchdown. J. Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-R. Underwood, Holder-B. Mann.
Points scoredPHI +7
Play EPAPHI +4.97 points
Win probability changePHI +17.7 pp73.3% → 91.0%
03
PHIQ4 · 8:03 · 3rd and 18 from the PHI 31Score WSH 16 · PHI 17
Rush
(Shotgun) J. Hurts scrambles up the middle to WSH 47 for 22 yards (A. Robertson).
Play EPAPHI +2.72 points
Win probability changePHI +13.3 pp62.6% → 75.9%
04
WSHQ4 · 12:12 · 3rd and 14 from the PHI 47Score WSH 9 · PHI 17
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) J. Daniels pass deep left to A. Williams pushed out of bounds at PHI 14 for 33 yards (J. Campbell).
Play EPAWSH +4.13 points
Win probability changeWSH +12.7 pp12.9% → 25.6%
05
WSHQ4 · 9:59 · 3rd and 6 from the PHI 10Score WSH 9 · PHI 17
Passing Touchdown
(Shotgun) J. Daniels pass short middle to S. Diggs for 10 yards, Touchdown. Penalty on WSH-S. Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. D. Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T. Ott, Holder-T. Way.
PenaltyUnsportsmanlike Conduct on WSH — 15-yard penalty; enforced between downs
Points scoredWSH +7
Play EPAWSH +3.19 points
Win probability changeWSH +11.2 pp23.7% → 34.9%
All plays 181
PHIQ1 · 15:00 · from the PHI 35Score WSH 0 · PHI 0
Kickoff
J. Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to WSH 3. J. Lane to WSH 36 for 33 yards (M. Carter).
Play EPAPHI −0.77 points
Win probability changeWSH +2.9 pp
WSHQ1 · 14:53 · 1st and 10 from the WSH 36Score WSH 0 · PHI 0
Rush
J. Croskey-Merritt left tackle to WSH 47 for 11 yards (M. Epps; J. Campbell).
Play EPAWSH +0.79 points
Win probability changeWSH +1.4 pp
WSHQ1 · 14:11 · 1st and 10 from the WSH 47Score WSH 0 · PHI 0
Rush
R. White left tackle to WSH 47 for no gain (J. Davis).
Play EPAWSH −0.49 points
Win probability changePHI +2.0 pp
WSHQ1 · 13:28 · 2nd and 10 from the WSH 47Score WSH 0 · PHI 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) J. Daniels pass incomplete short left to T. McLaurin. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay.
Play EPAWSH −0.90 points
Win probability changePHI +1.1 pp
WSHQ1 · 13:25 · 3rd and 10 from the WSH 47Score WSH 0 · PHI 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) J. Daniels pass short right to S. Diggs to PHI 40 for 13 yards (M. Epps). Penalty on PHI-C. DeJean, Illegal Contact, declined.
PenaltyIllegal Contact on PHI — declined
Play EPAWSH +2.34 points
Win probability changeWSH +5.3 pp
WSHQ1 · 12:59 · 1st and 10 from the PHI 40Score WSH 0 · PHI 0
Pass Incompletion
J. Daniels pass incomplete short right.
Play EPAWSH −0.57 points
Win probability changePHI +2.6 pp
WSHQ1 · 12:51 · 2nd and 10 from the PHI 40Score WSH 0 · PHI 0
Rush
(Shotgun) J. Croskey-Merritt right guard to PHI 40 for no gain (J. Davis).
Play EPAWSH −0.86 points
Win probability changePHI +1.5 pp
WSHQ1 · 12:08 · 3rd and 10 from the PHI 40Score WSH 0 · PHI 0
Rush
(Shotgun) R. White up the middle to PHI 37 for 3 yards (N. Smith; M. Ojomo).
Play EPAWSH −1.14 points
Win probability changePHI +1.0 pp
WSHQ1 · 11:23 · 4th and 7 from the PHI 37Score WSH 0 · PHI 0
Field Goal Good
D. Stevens 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T. Ott, Holder-T. Way.
Points scoredWSH +3
Play EPAWSH +2.29 points
Win probability changeWSH +4.9 pp
WSHQ1 · 11:23 · from the WSH 35Score WSH 3 · PHI 0
Kickoff
D. Stevens kicks 65 yards from WSH 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PHI 35.
Play EPAWSH −0.58 points
Win probability changePHI +1.6 pp
PHIQ1 · 11:23 · 1st and 10 from the PHI 35Score WSH 3 · PHI 0
Pass Incompletion
J. Hurts pass incomplete short right to S. Barkley.
Play EPAPHI −0.55 points
Win probability changeWSH +1.9 pp
PHIQ1 · 11:18 · 2nd and 10 from the PHI 35Score WSH 3 · PHI 0
Rush
S. Barkley right guard to PHI 40 for 5 yards (N. Cross; T. Settle).
Play EPAPHI −0.25 points
Win probability changePHI +0.6 pp
PHIQ1 · 10:34 · 3rd and 5 from the PHI 40Score WSH 3 · PHI 0
Rush
(Shotgun) J. Hurts scrambles left tackle ran ob at PHI 46 for 6 yards (M. Sainristil).
Play EPAPHI +1.58 points
Win probability changePHI +2.5 pp
PHIQ1 · 9:57 · 1st and 10 from the PHI 46Score WSH 3 · PHI 0
Rush
S. Barkley left end to PHI 45 for -1 yards (O. Oweh).
Play EPAPHI −0.81 points
Win probability changeWSH +2.6 pp
PHIQ1 · 9:23 · 2nd and 11 from the PHI 45Score WSH 3 · PHI 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) J. Hurts pass short left to M. Lemon pushed out of bounds at PHI 48 for 3 yards (A. Robertson).
Play EPAPHI −0.50 points
Win probability changeWSH +0.3 pp
PHIQ1 · 8:47 · 3rd and 8 from the PHI 48Score WSH 3 · PHI 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) J. Hurts pass incomplete short left to D. Wicks (R. Douglas).
Play EPAPHI −1.61 points
Win probability changeWSH +3.1 pp
PHIQ1 · 8:43 · 4th and 8 from the PHI 48Score WSH 3 · PHI 0
Punt
B. Mann punts 46 yards to WSH 6, Center-R. Underwood, out of bounds.
Play EPAPHI +0.38 points
Win probability changePHI +1.7 pp
WSHQ1 · 8:33 · 1st and 10 from the WSH 6Score WSH 3 · PHI 0
Rush
(Shotgun) J. Croskey-Merritt left guard to WSH 6 for no gain (M. Epps).
Play EPAWSH −0.61 points
Win probability changePHI +2.3 pp
WSHQ1 · 7:53 · 2nd and 10 from the WSH 6Score WSH 3 · PHI 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) J. Daniels pass incomplete short middle to S. Diggs.
Play EPAWSH −0.67 points
Win probability changePHI +1.0 pp
WSHQ1 · 7:48 · 3rd and 10 from the WSH 6Score WSH 3 · PHI 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) J. Daniels pass incomplete deep right to D. Brown.