Competitive scope through last play below 97.5% WP at start/end; earlier plays included; 180 WP values available
GAME/EXPLAINEDWeek 1
Game story
Las Vegas Raiders won 27–13
Las Vegas won by converting drives far more efficiently, averaging 5.4 points per trip inside the 40 to Miami’s 2.6, while also posting a major success-rate edge (48.4% to 36.0%) and committing 32 fewer penalty yards. Miami gained more yards per play and had more explosive plays, but those advantages did not translate into scoring, and turnovers were even.
Final score
MIA13
LV27
Game factors
MIA 4 · LV 31 tied
FactorMIALVGap
About bar scale
A full bar marks a large historical gap for that factor and view. Live bars use completed games as a reference, so their scale is provisional. Tied, unresolved, and low-sample comparisons have no bar.
Plays
About WP and EPA
WP is win probability; pp means percentage points. EPA estimates points added by a play and may become available after the next play.
Most impactful
01
MIAQ2 · 5:35 · 2nd and 26 from the LV 47Score MIA 0 · LV 10
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) M. Willis pass deep right to C. Douglas pushed out of bounds at LV 22 for 25 yards (T. Stukes).
Play EPAMIA +2.10 points
Win probability changeMIA +8.6 pp
02
MIAQ3 · 12:44 · 2nd and 10 from the LV 14Score MIA 6 · LV 17
Rushing Touchdown
(Shotgun) M. Willis scrambles right end for 14 yards, Touchdown. R. Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-T. Addington, Holder-B. Pinion.
Points scoredMIA +7
Play EPAMIA +2.32 points
Win probability changeMIA +8.4 pp
03
LVQ2 · 1:07 · 3rd and 8 from the MIA 13Score MIA 3 · LV 10
Passing Touchdown
(Shotgun) K. Cousins pass short middle to A. Jeanty for 13 yards, Touchdown. M. Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A. Ward, Holder-A. Cole.
Points scoredLV +7
Play EPALV +3.24 points
Win probability changeLV +6.3 pp
04
LVQ1 · 1:33 · 3rd and 4 from the MIA 15Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Passing Touchdown
(Shotgun) K. Cousins pass short middle to J. Bech for 15 yards, Touchdown. M. Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A. Ward, Holder-A. Cole.
Points scoredLV +7
Play EPALV +2.56 points
Win probability changeLV +6.0 pp
05
MIAQ2 · 4:54 · 3rd and 1 from the LV 22Score MIA 0 · LV 10
Rush
C. Wallace reported in as eligible. D. Achane right guard to LV 23 for -1 yards (N. Dean, Q. Walker).
Play EPAMIA −1.84 points
Win probability changeLV +5.8 pp
All plays 179
LVQ1 · 15:00 · from the LV 35Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Kickoff
M. Gay kicks 62 yards from LV 35 to MIA 3. M. Washington to MIA 25 for 22 yards (T. Stukes; S. Olubi).
Play EPALV −0.03 points
Win probability changeMIA +1.8 pp
MIAQ1 · 14:51 · 1st and 10 from the MIA 25Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Rush
(Shotgun) D. Achane up the middle to MIA 29 for 4 yards (F. Fatukasi).
Play EPAMIA −0.08 points
Win probability changeLV +0.4 pp
MIAQ1 · 14:15 · 2nd and 6 from the MIA 29Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Rush
M. Willis scrambles left end pushed out of bounds at MIA 36 for 7 yards (T. Hemingway).
Play EPAMIA +0.82 points
Win probability changeMIA +1.8 pp
MIAQ1 · 13:39 · 1st and 10 from the MIA 36Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Rush
(Shotgun) D. Achane up the middle to MIA 34 for -2 yards (K. Paye, T. Johnson).
Play EPAMIA −1.02 points
Win probability changeLV +2.6 pp
MIAQ1 · 12:59 · 2nd and 12 from the MIA 34Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) M. Willis pass short left to D. Achane to MIA 41 for 7 yards (J. Chinn).
Play EPAMIA +0.12 points
Win probability changeMIA +1.4 pp
MIAQ1 · 12:14 · 3rd and 5 from the MIA 41Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) M. Willis pass short left to D. Achane to LV 45 for 14 yards (T. Stukes).
Play EPAMIA +2.14 points
Win probability changeMIA +4.1 pp
MIAQ1 · 11:33 · 1st and 10 from the LV 45Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Rush
(Shotgun) M. Willis left end pushed out of bounds at LV 45 for no gain (J. Chinn).
Play EPAMIA −0.57 points
Win probability changeLV +2.4 pp
MIAQ1 · 10:58 · 2nd and 10 from the LV 45Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) M. Willis pass incomplete deep left to M. Washington (D. Porter).
Play EPAMIA −0.88 points
Win probability changeLV +1.4 pp
MIAQ1 · 10:53 · 3rd and 10 from the LV 45Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Penalty
(Shotgun) Penalty on MIA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LV 45 - No Play.
PenaltyDelay of Game on MIA — 5-yard penalty; no play
Play EPAMIA −0.88 points
Win probability changeLV +1.6 pp
MIAQ1 · 10:52 · 3rd and 15 from midfieldScore MIA 0 · LV 0
Rush
(Shotgun) M. Willis scrambles right end pushed out of bounds at LV 44 for 6 yards (N. Dean). Penalty on MIA-A. Brewer, Offensive Holding, declined.
PenaltyOffensive Holding on MIA — declined
Play EPAMIA −0.97 points
Win probability changeLV +0.9 pp
MIAQ1 · 10:38 · 4th and 9 from the LV 44Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Punt
B. Pinion punts 37 yards to LV 7, Center-T. Addington, fair catch by D. Laube.
Play EPAMIA −0.14 points
Win probability changeMIA +1.0 pp
LVQ1 · 10:31 · 1st and 10 from the LV 7Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Rush
A. Jeanty up the middle to LV 18 for 11 yards (C. Johnson; J. Marshall).
Play EPALV +0.74 points
Win probability changeLV +1.4 pp
LVQ1 · 10:03 · 1st and 10 from the LV 18Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Rush
A. Jeanty up the middle to LV 23 for 5 yards (Z. Anderson).
Play EPALV −0.17 points
Win probability changeMIA +<0.1 pp
LVQ1 · 9:34 · 2nd and 5 from the LV 23Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Rush
A. Jeanty left end to LV 22 for -1 yards (C. Johnson).
Play EPALV −0.99 points
Win probability changeMIA +1.8 pp
LVQ1 · 8:57 · 3rd and 6 from the LV 22Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) K. Cousins pass short left to J. Nailor to LV 30 for 8 yards (J. Marshall).
Play EPALV +2.02 points
Win probability changeLV +3.2 pp
LVQ1 · 8:23 · 1st and 10 from the LV 30Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Pass Reception
K. Cousins pass short right to M. Benson to LV 36 for 6 yards (C. Johnson).
Play EPALV +0.18 points
Win probability changeLV +0.4 pp
LVQ1 · 7:48 · 2nd and 4 from the LV 36Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) K. Cousins pass short right to M. Mayer to LV 43 for 7 yards (J. Brooks; M. Taaffe).
Play EPALV +0.54 points
Win probability changeLV +1.1 pp
LVQ1 · 7:06 · 1st and 10 from the LV 43Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Pass Reception
K. Cousins pass short middle to M. Mayer to MIA 43 for 14 yards (C. Johnson; J. Rodriguez).
Play EPALV +0.71 points
Win probability changeLV +1.9 pp
LVQ1 · 6:24 · 1st and 10 from the MIA 43Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Pass Reception
K. Cousins pass short right to M. Mayer to MIA 43 for no gain (J. Brooks).
Play EPALV −0.53 points
Win probability changeMIA +2.5 pp
LVQ1 · 5:45 · 2nd and 10 from the MIA 43Score MIA 0 · LV 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) K. Cousins pass short right to T. Tucker pushed out of bounds at MIA 37 for 6 yards (J. Brents).