Competitive scope through last play below 97.5% WP at start/end; earlier plays included; 185 WP values available
GAME/EXPLAINEDWeek 1
Game story
Arizona Cardinals won 26–14
Arizona’s two-turnover advantage, better success rate, stronger efficiency and 10-yard better average field position explain most of the win, while it also scored more efficiently inside the 40 despite 47 more penalty yards. The Chargers were essentially even in explosive-play rate, so that edge did not offset Arizona’s steadier overall performance.
Final score
ARI26
LAC14
ESPN box-score totals or offensive-play counts differ from available play-by-play for ARI. Full-game totals use ESPN; play-based metrics and competitive splits may be incomplete.
Game factors
ARI 5 · LAC 21 tied
FactorARILACGap
About bar scale
A full bar marks a large historical gap for that factor and view. Live bars use completed games as a reference, so their scale is provisional. Tied, unresolved, and low-sample comparisons have no bar.
Plays
About WP and EPA
WP is win probability; pp means percentage points. EPA estimates points added by a play and may become available after the next play.
Most impactful
01
LACQ4 · 12:28 · 4th and 11 from the LAC 19Score ARI 16 · LAC 14
Blocked Punt
J. Scott punt is BLOCKED by S. Fehoko, Center-J. Harris, recovered by LAC-A. Ingold at LAC 3.
Play EPALAC −4.13 points
Win probability changeARI +18.9 pp52.0% → 70.9%
02
LACQ3 · 6:03 · 3rd and 6 from the ARI 8Score ARI 16 · LAC 7
Passing Touchdown
(Shotgun) J. Herbert pass short right to L. McConkey for 8 yards, Touchdown. C. Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-J. Harris, Holder-J. Scott.
Points scoredLAC +7
Play EPALAC +2.75 points
Win probability changeLAC +11.1 pp49.4% → 60.4%
03
ARIQ3 · 11:27 · 2nd and 8 from the ARI 12Score ARI 13 · LAC 7
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) J. Brissett pass deep left to M. Harrison to ARZ 45 for 33 yards (C. Hart) [D. Phillips].
Play EPAARI +2.91 points
Win probability changeARI +9.0 pp
04
ARIQ4 · 11:44 · 2nd and 3 from the LAC 3Score ARI 16 · LAC 14
Passing Touchdown
(Shotgun) J. Brissett pass short left to T. McBride for 3 yards, Touchdown. C. Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C. Kreiter, Holder-B. Gillikin.
Points scoredARI +7
Play EPAARI +1.32 points
Win probability changeARI +8.6 pp
05
LACQ2 · 13:37 · 2nd and 10 from the ARI 30Score ARI 7 · LAC 7
Fumble Recovery (Opponent)
(Shotgun) O. Hampton left end to ARZ 31 for -1 yards (A. Wingard). FUMBLES (A. Wingard), RECOVERED by ARZ-W. Johnson at ARZ 34.
Play EPALAC −4.71 points
Win probability changeARI +7.5 pp
All plays 184
LACQ1 · 15:00 · from the LAC 35Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Kickoff
C. Dicker kicks 60 yards from LAC 35 to ARZ 5. D. Duvernay to ARZ 30 for 25 yards (B. Dupree).
Play EPALAC −0.31 points
Win probability changeARI +1.6 pp
ARIQ1 · 14:56 · 1st and 10 from the ARI 30Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Pass Reception
J. Brissett pass deep right to T. McBride to LAC 43 for 27 yards (E. Molden).
Play EPAARI +1.78 points
Win probability changeARI +2.8 pp
ARIQ1 · 14:18 · 1st and 10 from the LAC 43Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Rush
(Shotgun) T. Allgeier right guard to LAC 41 for 2 yards (D. Tomlinson; T. Tuipulotu).
Play EPAARI −0.28 points
Win probability changeLAC +1.1 pp
ARIQ1 · 13:34 · 2nd and 8 from the LAC 41Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) J. Brissett pass incomplete short middle to M. Harrison.
Play EPAARI −0.89 points
Win probability changeLAC +1.0 pp
ARIQ1 · 13:30 · 3rd and 8 from the LAC 41Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Rush
(Shotgun) J. Brissett scrambles left end ran ob at LAC 30 for 11 yards (T. Tuipulotu).
Play EPAARI +2.22 points
Win probability changeARI +4.2 pp
ARIQ1 · 12:51 · 1st and 10 from the LAC 30Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Pass Reception
J. Williams reported in as eligible. J. Brissett pass short right to T. Allgeier to LAC 25 for 5 yards (D. Henley; T. Jefferson).
Play EPAARI +0.15 points
Win probability changeARI +0.7 pp
ARIQ1 · 12:08 · 2nd and 5 from the LAC 25Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Rush
T. Allgeier left end to LAC 21 for 4 yards (A. Mesidor).
Play EPAARI +0.06 points
Win probability changeARI +1.8 pp
ARIQ1 · 11:39 · 3rd and 1 from the LAC 21Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Rush
J. Brissett up the middle to LAC 19 for 2 yards (J. Caldwell).
Play EPAARI +0.46 points
Win probability changeLAC +0.2 pp
ARIQ1 · 11:01 · 1st and 10 from the LAC 19Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Rush
(Shotgun) J. Love up the middle to LAC 19 for no gain (T. Tuipulotu).
Play EPAARI −0.50 points
Win probability changeLAC +2.1 pp
ARIQ1 · 10:21 · 2nd and 10 from the LAC 19Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) J. Brissett pass short left to K. Bourne to LAC 8 for 11 yards (C. Hart).
Play EPAARI +1.17 points
Win probability changeARI +3.1 pp
ARIQ1 · 9:34 · 1st and 8 from the LAC 8Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Timeout
Timeout #1 by ARZ at 09:34.
Play EPAUnavailable
Win probability changeLAC +<0.1 pp
ARIQ1 · 9:34 · 1st and 8 from the LAC 8Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Rush
J. Love up the middle to LAC 5 for 3 yards (E. Molden).
Play EPAARI −0.05 points
Win probability changeARI +0.4 pp
ARIQ1 · 8:49 · 2nd and 5 from the LAC 5Score ARI 0 · LAC 0
Rushing Touchdown
(Shotgun) J. Love left end for 5 yards, Touchdown. C. Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C. Kreiter, Holder-B. Gillikin.
Points scoredARI +7
Play EPAARI +1.81 points
Win probability changeARI +4.7 pp
ARIQ1 · 8:49 · from the LAC 15Score ARI 7 · LAC 0
Official Timeout
Official Timeout at 08:49.
Play EPAUnavailable
Win probability changeARI +0.3 pp
ARIQ1 · 8:49 · from the ARI 35Score ARI 7 · LAC 0
Kickoff
C. Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARZ 35 to LAC 0. K. Mitchell to LAC 23 for 23 yards (K. Crawford).
Play EPAARI +0.28 points
Win probability changeLAC +0.1 pp
LACQ1 · 8:45 · 1st and 10 from the LAC 23Score ARI 7 · LAC 0
Rush
O. Hampton left end to LAC 25 for 2 yards (R. Lopez).
Play EPALAC −0.31 points
Win probability changeARI +1.1 pp
LACQ1 · 8:13 · 2nd and 8 from the LAC 25Score ARI 7 · LAC 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) J. Herbert pass deep middle to L. McConkey to LAC 43 for 18 yards (W. Johnson).
Play EPALAC +1.74 points
Win probability changeLAC +3.4 pp
LACQ1 · 7:34 · 1st and 10 from the LAC 43Score ARI 7 · LAC 0
Rush
O. Hampton right end to LAC 43 for no gain (Ma.Wilson).
Play EPALAC −0.48 points
Win probability changeARI +2.2 pp
LACQ1 · 6:57 · 2nd and 10 from the LAC 43Score ARI 7 · LAC 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) J. Herbert pass deep middle to L. McConkey to ARZ 34 for 23 yards (B. Baker).
Play EPALAC +1.62 points
Win probability changeLAC +4.9 pp
LACQ1 · 6:16 · 1st and 10 from the ARI 34Score ARI 7 · LAC 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) J. Herbert pass short middle to L. McConkey to ARZ 15 for 19 yards (B. Baker).