Competitive scope through last play below 97.5% WP at start/end; earlier plays included; 190 WP values available
GAME/EXPLAINEDWeek 1
Game story
Pittsburgh Steelers won 20–13
Pittsburgh’s edge came from cleaner execution: fewer turnovers, a 7-0 advantage in non-offensive points, better success rate and efficiency, and 44 fewer penalty yards. Atlanta had more explosive plays and better starting field position, but those advantages were outweighed—especially by T.J. Watt’s interception-return touchdown.
Final score
ATL13
PIT20
ESPN box-score totals or offensive-play counts differ from available play-by-play for PIT. Full-game totals use ESPN; play-based metrics and competitive splits may be incomplete.
Game factors
ATL 2 · PIT 6
FactorATLPITGap
About bar scale
A full bar marks a large historical gap for that factor and view. Live bars use completed games as a reference, so their scale is provisional. Tied, unresolved, and low-sample comparisons have no bar.
Plays
About WP and EPA
WP is win probability; pp means percentage points. EPA estimates points added by a play and may become available after the next play.
Most impactful
01
ATLQ4 · 14:05 · 2nd and 10 from the ATL 44Score ATL 10 · PIT 13
Interception Return Touchdown
(Shotgun) C. Rush pass short right intended for Bi.Robinson intercepted by T. Watt at ATL 35. T. Watt for 35 yards, Touchdown. C. Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C. Kuntz, Holder-C. Johnston.
Defensive pointsPIT +7
Play EPAATL −8.28 points
Win probability changePIT +23.6 pp67.1% → 90.7%
02
ATLQ1 · 1:13 · 3rd and 8 from the PIT 23Score ATL 0 · PIT 3
Passing Touchdown
(Shotgun) C. Rush pass short right to Bi.Robinson for 23 yards, Touchdown. N. Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L. McCullough, Holder-J. Bailey.
Points scoredATL +7
Play EPAATL +3.62 points
Win probability changeATL +10.4 pp36.0% → 46.3%
03
ATLQ4 · 13:57 · 1st and 10 from the ATL 34Score ATL 10 · PIT 20
Rush
Br.Robinson left end to ATL 48 for 14 yards (J. Brisker; J. Ramsey).
Points scoredATL +3
Play EPAATL +1.04 points
Win probability changeATL +10.4 pp10.2% → 20.6%
04
ATLQ2 · 12:17 · 1st and 10 from the ATL 24Score ATL 7 · PIT 6
Pass Interception Return
(Shotgun) C. Rush pass deep middle intended for J. Dotson intercepted by J. Brisker at ATL 41. J. Brisker pushed out of bounds at ATL 31 for 10 yards (M. Bergeron).
Play EPAATL −4.76 points
Win probability changePIT +9.8 pp
05
PITQ1 · 2:48 · 2nd and 8 from the PIT 27Score ATL 0 · PIT 3
Fumble Recovery (Opponent)
(Shotgun) A. Rodgers pass short right to J. Warren to PIT 27 for no gain (M. Hughes, C. Thomas). FUMBLES (C. Thomas), RECOVERED by ATL-D. Deablo at PIT 25.
Play EPAPIT −5.13 points
Win probability changeATL +9.5 pp
All plays 189
ATLQ1 · 15:00 · from the ATL 35Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Kickoff
N. Folk kicks 54 yards from ATL 35 to PIT 11. K. Wetjen pushed out of bounds at PIT 38 for 27 yards (D. Hellams).
Play EPAATL −0.83 points
Win probability changePIT +3.1 pp
PITQ1 · 14:54 · 1st and 10 from the PIT 38Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) A. Rodgers pass incomplete short right.
Play EPAPIT −0.49 points
Win probability changeATL +1.8 pp
PITQ1 · 14:48 · 2nd and 10 from the PIT 38Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Rush
J. Warren left tackle to PIT 42 for 4 yards (S. Brown).
Play EPAPIT −0.50 points
Win probability changePIT +0.2 pp
PITQ1 · 14:03 · 3rd and 6 from the PIT 42Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) A. Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to D. Metcalf.
Play EPAPIT −1.58 points
Win probability changeATL +3.0 pp
PITQ1 · 13:58 · 4th and 6 from the PIT 42Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Punt
C. Johnston punts 41 yards to ATL 17, Center-C. Kuntz, out of bounds.
Play EPAPIT +0.03 points
Win probability changePIT +0.6 pp
ATLQ1 · 13:51 · 1st and 10 from the ATL 17Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Rush
Bi.Robinson left tackle to ATL 19 for 2 yards (C. Heyward).
Play EPAATL −0.48 points
Win probability changePIT +1.2 pp
ATLQ1 · 13:14 · 2nd and 8 from the ATL 19Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) C. Rush pass short left to Bi.Robinson to ATL 23 for 4 yards (J. Brisker).
Play EPAATL −0.15 points
Win probability changeATL +0.4 pp
ATLQ1 · 12:31 · 3rd and 4 from the ATL 23Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Sack
(Shotgun) C. Rush sacked at ATL 16 for -7 yards (A. Highsmith). Penalty on ATL-J. Taylor, Offensive Holding, declined.
PenaltyOffensive Holding on ATL — declined
Play EPAATL −2.05 points
Win probability changePIT +3.7 pp
ATLQ1 · 12:16 · 4th and 11 from the ATL 16Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Punt
J. Bailey punts 60 yards to PIT 24, Center-L. McCullough. K. Wetjen to PIT 32 for 8 yards (J. Woods).
Play EPAATL +0.47 points
Win probability changeATL +1.4 pp
PITQ1 · 12:04 · 1st and 10 from the PIT 32Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Official Timeout
Official Timeout at 12:04.
Play EPAUnavailable
Win probability changeATL +<0.1 pp
PITQ1 · 12:04 · 1st and 10 from the PIT 32Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Rush
R. Dowdle up the middle to PIT 38 for 6 yards (X. Watts).
Play EPAPIT +0.14 points
Win probability changePIT +0.5 pp
PITQ1 · 11:29 · 2nd and 4 from the PIT 38Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Pass Reception
A. Rodgers pass short left to P. Freiermuth to PIT 47 for 9 yards (S. Brown).
Play EPAPIT +0.78 points
Win probability changePIT +1.2 pp
PITQ1 · 10:56 · 1st and 10 from the PIT 47Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Pass Reception
(No Huddle, Shotgun) A. Rodgers pass short left to D. Metcalf to ATL 47 for 6 yards (X. Watts).
Play EPAPIT +0.15 points
Win probability changePIT +0.5 pp
PITQ1 · 10:18 · 2nd and 4 from the ATL 47Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) A. Rodgers pass short left to M. Pittman to ATL 26 for 21 yards (K. Daniels; Aj.Terrell).
Play EPAPIT +1.48 points
Win probability changePIT +3.2 pp
PITQ1 · 9:26 · 1st and 10 from the ATL 26Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Rush
(Shotgun) R. Dowdle left tackle to ATL 25 for 1 yard (L. London; J. Ivey).
Play EPAPIT −0.49 points
Win probability changeATL +1.5 pp
PITQ1 · 8:43 · 2nd and 9 from the ATL 25Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) A. Rodgers pass incomplete short left to R. Dowdle.
Play EPAPIT −0.64 points
Win probability changeATL +1.2 pp
PITQ1 · 8:39 · 3rd and 9 from the ATL 25Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) A. Rodgers pass incomplete short right to R. Dowdle (M. Smith).
Play EPAPIT −1.31 points
Win probability changeATL +2.1 pp
PITQ1 · 8:30 · 4th and 9 from the ATL 25Score ATL 0 · PIT 0
Field Goal Good
C. Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C. Kuntz, Holder-C. Johnston.
Points scoredPIT +3
Play EPAPIT +0.93 points
Win probability changePIT +2.1 pp
PITQ1 · 8:30 · from the PIT 35Score ATL 0 · PIT 3
Official Timeout
Official Timeout at 08:30.
Play EPAUnavailable
Win probability changeNo measured change
PITQ1 · 8:30 · from the PIT 35Score ATL 0 · PIT 3
Kickoff
C. Boswell kicks 66 yards from PIT 35 to ATL -1. Br.Robinson to ATL 23 for 24 yards (R. Spears-Jennings; C. Bruener).