Competitive scope through last play below 97.5% WP at start/end; earlier plays included; 170 WP values available
GAME/EXPLAINEDWeek 1
Game story
San Francisco 49ers won 27–7
San Francisco’s 67.2% success rate, better adjusted efficiency, and strong red-zone production (3.86 points per trip inside the 40 to Los Angeles’ 1.75) best explain the margin, with the Rams also committing twice as many penalty yards and one more turnover. The Rams had essentially no field-position edge, so the data supports a clear 49ers advantage rather than a single decisive play.
Final score
SF27
LAR7
ESPN box-score totals or offensive-play counts differ from available play-by-play for SF. Full-game totals use ESPN; play-based metrics and competitive splits may be incomplete.
Game factors
SF 5 · LAR 21 tied
FactorSFLARGap
About bar scale
A full bar marks a large historical gap for that factor and view. Live bars use completed games as a reference, so their scale is provisional. Tied, unresolved, and low-sample comparisons have no bar.
Plays
About WP and EPA
WP is win probability; pp means percentage points. EPA estimates points added by a play and may become available after the next play.
Most impactful
01
SFQ2 · 4:28 · 2nd and 6 from the LAR 39Score SF 3 · LAR 7
Passing Touchdown
B. Purdy pass deep middle to D. Robinson for 39 yards, Touchdown. E. Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J. Weeks, Holder-C. Waitman.
Points scoredSF +7
Play EPASF +4.36 points
Win probability changeSF +13.6 pp36.2% → 49.8%
02
LARQ3 · 4:26 · 3rd and 2 from the SF 2Score SF 17 · LAR 7
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) M. Stafford pass short left to P. Nacua to SF 1 for 1 yard (D. Lenoir).
Play EPALAR −0.38 points
Win probability changeSF +9.1 pp
03
LARQ3 · 6:56 · 1st and 15 from the SF 24Score SF 17 · LAR 7
Pass Reception
M. Stafford pass short left to D. Adams to SF 11 for 13 yards (J. Brown).
Play EPALAR +1.08 points
Win probability changeLAR +8.9 pp
04
LARQ3 · 15:00 · from the LAR 35Score SF 10 · LAR 7
Kickoff
H. Mevis kicks 61 yards from LA 35 to SF 4. D. Samuel to SF 49 for 45 yards (K. Kinchens).
Play EPALAR −1.64 points
Win probability changeSF +8.2 pp
05
SFQ2 · 12:09 · 1st and 10 from the LAR 46Score SF 3 · LAR 7
Pass Interception Return
B. Purdy pass short right intended for G. Kittle intercepted by Q. Lake at LA 31. Q. Lake to LA 31 for no gain (G. Kittle).
Play EPASF −4.28 points
Win probability changeLAR +7.8 pp
All plays 169
SFQ1 · 15:00 · from the SF 35Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Kickoff
E. Pineiro kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to LA 0. J. Whittington to LA 17 for 17 yards (M. Mustapha).
Play EPASF +0.62 points
Win probability changeLAR +0.8 pp
LARQ1 · 14:54 · 1st and 10 from the LAR 17Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) M. Stafford pass incomplete short left to P. Nacua (F. Warner) [N. Bosa].
Play EPALAR −0.61 points
Win probability changeSF +2.0 pp
LARQ1 · 14:50 · 2nd and 10 from the LAR 17Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Rush
(Shotgun) K. Williams left guard to LA 22 for 5 yards (F. Warner).
Play EPALAR −0.40 points
Win probability changeLAR +0.7 pp
LARQ1 · 14:17 · 3rd and 5 from the LAR 22Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) M. Stafford pass short left to P. Nacua to LA 26 for 4 yards (D. Lenoir).
Play EPALAR −0.48 points
Win probability changeSF +2.4 pp
LARQ1 · 13:38 · 4th and 1 from the LAR 26Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Punt
E. Evans punts 54 yards to SF 20, Center-J. Cardona. J. Cowing ran ob at SF 33 for 13 yards (K. Kinchens).
Play EPALAR −0.73 points
Win probability changeLAR +<0.1 pp
SFQ1 · 13:28 · 1st and 10 from the SF 33Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Rush
C. McCaffrey up the middle to SF 39 for 6 yards (N. Landman).
Play EPASF +0.30 points
Win probability changeSF +0.6 pp
SFQ1 · 12:59 · 2nd and 4 from the SF 39Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) B. Purdy pass incomplete short left to G. Kittle (Q. Lake).
Play EPASF −0.88 points
Win probability changeLAR +1.4 pp
SFQ1 · 12:53 · 3rd and 4 from the SF 39Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) B. Purdy pass short left to M. Evans to SF 46 for 7 yards (Q. Lake).
Play EPASF +1.54 points
Win probability changeSF +2.5 pp
SFQ1 · 12:19 · 1st and 10 from the SF 46Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) B. Purdy pass short left to G. Kittle to LA 48 for 6 yards (J. Watson).
Play EPASF +0.19 points
Win probability changeSF +0.8 pp
SFQ1 · 11:40 · 2nd and 4 from the LAR 48Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Reception
B. Purdy pass short right to D. Samuel pushed out of bounds at LA 39 for 9 yards (T. McDuffie).
Play EPASF +0.77 points
Win probability changeSF +1.8 pp
SFQ1 · 11:07 · 1st and 10 from the LAR 39Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Rush
K. Black left guard to LA 38 for 1 yard (K. Turner; O. Speights).
Play EPASF −0.59 points
Win probability changeLAR +2.4 pp
SFQ1 · 10:30 · 2nd and 9 from the LAR 38Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Reception
B. Purdy pass short left to K. Black to LA 33 for 5 yards (K. Curl; K. Kinchens) [J. Stewart].
Play EPASF +0.17 points
Win probability changeSF +2.1 pp
SFQ1 · 9:48 · 3rd and 4 from the LAR 33Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) B. Purdy pass short right to M. Evans to LA 26 for 7 yards (J. Watson; J. McCollough).
Play EPASF +1.34 points
Win probability changeSF +2.8 pp
SFQ1 · 9:07 · 1st and 10 from the LAR 26Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) B. Purdy pass incomplete deep right to G. Kittle (T. McDuffie).
Play EPASF −0.46 points
Win probability changeLAR +2.3 pp
SFQ1 · 9:01 · 2nd and 10 from the LAR 26Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Reception
B. Purdy pass short right to C. McCaffrey to LA 18 for 8 yards (K. Curl).
Play EPASF +0.43 points
Win probability changeSF +4.1 pp
SFQ1 · 8:19 · 3rd and 2 from the LAR 18Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Reception
(Shotgun) B. Purdy pass short left to M. Evans to LA 10 for 8 yards (Q. Lake).
Play EPASF +0.84 points
Win probability changeSF +2.3 pp
SFQ1 · 7:44 · 1st and 10 from the LAR 10Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Reception
B. Purdy pass short right to D. Samuel to LA 8 for 2 yards (T. McDuffie).
Play EPASF −0.26 points
Win probability changeLAR +2.5 pp
SFQ1 · 7:04 · 2nd and 8 from the LAR 8Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Reception
B. Purdy pass short right to G. Kittle to LA 2 for 6 yards (T. Davis; K. Kinchens).
Play EPASF +0.24 points
Win probability changeSF +1.5 pp
SFQ1 · 6:22 · 3rd and 2 from the LAR 2Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Pass Incompletion
(Shotgun) B. Purdy pass incomplete short right to D. Robinson (T. McDuffie) [N. Landman].
Play EPASF −2.05 points
Win probability changeLAR +6.6 pp
SFQ1 · 6:15 · 4th and 2 from the LAR 2Score SF 0 · LAR 0
Field Goal Good
E. Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J. Weeks, Holder-C. Waitman.